Staking and Bankroll Caps

Every value play Fairline publishes is flagged at a flat 3% edge: when the model's fair probability beats the sportsbook's vig-included price by 3% or more, in any market, it surfaces as a play. Stake size then scales with the size of that edge along a fixed unit ladder, identical across sports.

The bigger the model's edge over the price, the larger the play, topping out at 2.5u. MLB strikeout props cap at 1.5u because their early-season inputs carry more uncertainty. Sizing in units rather than dollars keeps staking discipline independent of bankroll size; one unit is 2% of bankroll. For the reasoning behind unit-based staking, see the guide on units and bankroll management.

Command-line reference

The standalone model runner also ships a fractional Kelly criterion calculator used for offline analysis. It is a reference tool and does not size the plays shown on this site (those use the edge ladder above). For completeness, its per-sport settings:

The parameter values on this page are served live from the model configuration and refresh periodically; when a weight or threshold changes, this page reflects it automatically.