Learn
The math behind the bets.
Plain-English guides to the concepts Fairline is built on, and a transparent look at how each model works under the hood.
Getting started
Expected value (EV)The single number that decides whether a bet is worth making, with worked examples.Closing line value (CLV)Why the price you beat matters more than this week's win-loss record.Fair oddsFrom a win probability to a labeled break-even price you can compare any book against.The vig (juice)The built-in house edge in every line, why -110 already favors the book, and the break-even you actually need.Win rate vs ROIWhy a 40% bettor can crush a 60% bettor, and why price beats record every time.Units & bankrollWhy pros talk in units, what fractional Kelly is for, and why flat 1u beats scaling stake with claimed edge.VarianceWhy a real edge still has losing months, and how much swing is normal over 100 bets.PushesWhen a bet ties the line, why half-points matter, and how pushes change EV.ParlaysHow parlays multiply the house edge, and why Fairline prices straight bets only.How accurate are models?Why per-game accuracy is the wrong question, and the three numbers that actually measure a model.
Pricing a bet
The models
How the models workMLB modelNHL modelEPL modelNFL modelInternal value detectionThe MLB underdog edgeThe one pocket the model tracks. How a bet enters it, how it grades, and where the record stops.Pitchers & bullpen fatigueWhere the starter stops, where the pen picks up, and what a tired bullpen is worth in runs.Goalies & fair oddsOne multiplier, worked from save percentage to a fair moneyline price.The draw correctionThe Dixon-Coles correction, its four cells, and what it is worth on a draw price.NFL key numbersWhy football margins pile up on five numbers, and what that costs on a half point.Data sources